建信期货油脂日报-20260203

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - Affected by the pessimistic sentiment in the macro - market and the plunge in international oil prices, domestic oil and fat futures have collectively declined. After the rapid downward correction of the market, the oil and fat sector will return to fundamentals. Technically, the sector will continue to seek support downward in the short - term. The RVO final decision in early March is crucial for the oil and fat market. In February, it enters the policy - sensitive period. The estimated soybean yield in Brazil continues to increase, and the harvest pace is accelerating, which suppresses the upside space of the entire oil and fat sector. If the month - end inventory in Malaysia decreases limitedly, Malaysian palm oil may face renewed downward pressure [8] 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 9280, the opening price was 9234, the highest price was 9316, the lowest price was 8964, the closing price was 9014, with a decline of 266 and a decline rate of 2.87%. The trading volume was 656811, the open interest was 463751, and the open interest change was - 28758 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 9208, the opening price was 9140, the highest price was 9248, the lowest price was 8906, the closing price was 8958, with a decline of 250 and a decline rate of 2.72%. The trading volume was 43454, the open interest was 109465, and the open interest change was 783 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 8310, the opening price was 8278, the highest price was 8326, the lowest price was 8052, the closing price was 8092, with a decline of 218 and a decline rate of 2.62%. The trading volume was 459873, the open interest was 755956, and the open interest change was - 67106 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 8246, the opening price was 8218, the highest price was 8260, the lowest price was 7992, the closing price was 8028, with a decline of 218 and a decline rate of 2.64%. The trading volume was 71765, the open interest was 193002, and the open interest change was 4052 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9406, the opening price was 9367, the highest price was 9416, the lowest price was 9121, the closing price was 9136, with a decline of 270 and a decline rate of 2.87%. The trading volume was 294800, the open interest was 284335, and the open interest change was - 19596 [7] - 01609: The previous settlement price was 9316, the opening price was 9268, the highest price was 9323, the lowest price was 9041, the closing price was 9064, with a decline of 252 and a decline rate of 2.71%. The trading volume was 20135, the open interest was 36561, and the open interest change was 600 [7] - Base Price Information: - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: 4 - 5 months: 05 + 500; 2 - 3 months: OI2605+620; 3 - 4 months: OI2605+580 [7] - East China market soybean oil base price: First - grade soybean oil: February: Y2605+390; 4 - 5 months: Y2605+280; 5 - 7 months: Y2605+250; 6 - 9 months: Y2609+290 [7] - Guangzhou traders' palm oil quotes are stable: Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil: 05+30 in February [7] 4.2 Industry News - The shipping survey agency SGS reported that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 was 746745 tons, a 9.4% decrease compared to the 824276 tons exported from December 1 - 25. Exports to China were 28500 tons, a decrease of 54500 tons compared to the same period last month [9] - On February 2, 2026 (Monday), the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market was closed for a public holiday (Thaipusam) [9] - As of January 30, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 8.4 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.5 million tons. The cumulative arrival in January was 7.4 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in January 2026 was 7.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons compared to the forecast of 9.5 million tons in the previous month, a month - on - month change of - 19.90%, and an increase of 1.1 million tons compared to the 6.5 million tons of arrival volume in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 17.69% [9][10] 4.3 Data Overview - Argentina's Soybean Situation: As of January 28, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean season in Argentina was 99.5% complete, higher than 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report. 64% of the planting areas still have suitable to optimal moisture conditions. About 16.4% of the second - season soybeans in Argentina are in the flowering stage, but the moisture conditions are relatively tight [16] - Brazil's Soybean Situation: Although Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high this year, farmers are hesitant to sell soybeans. Due to the expected sufficient supply and low soybean prices, the soybean price has dropped by up to 10 reais per bag in a month. So far, farmers have only pre - sold 30.3% of the new soybeans, compared with 39% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 41.1% [16]