建信期货豆粕日报-20260203

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review - For domestic soybean meal contracts, the prices of contracts such as bean粕2603, bean粕2605, and bean粕2607 all declined. For example, the closing price of bean粕2605 was 2750, a decrease of 26 or -0.94%, and its trading volume was 842011 with a position volume of 2089051, a decrease of 67829 [6]. - The foreign - market US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract approaching 1055 cents. The US soybean had a rebound before due to the digestion of negative factors, good weekly export data for two consecutive weeks, and relatively positive expectations from the biodiesel policy. However, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, there was always supply pressure on the market [6]. - Operation Suggestions - Domestic 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the foreign - market cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, they are generally treated as range - bound with a slightly bearish bias on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans falls short of expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [6]. 3. Industry News - Brazilian Situation: As of January 24, the harvest rate in Mato Grosso was 19.7% (five - year average of 14.63%), and in South Mato Grosso, it was 2% (five - year average of 2.75%), with the overall progress being normal. Except for the southernmost Rio Grande do Sul where soybeans are still in the critical growth stage, the production in other major producing states is basically set, and the expectation of a high - yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is increasing [9]. - Argentine Situation: As of January 22, the soybean sowing rate was about 98% (last week was 95%, last year's同期 was 99%, and the five - year average was 97.8%), and the sowing work in all regions was basically completed. It will gradually enter the critical growth stage in February. Due to high temperatures and lack of rain, a crop expert lowered the Argentine soybean yield forecast by 2 million tons to 47 million tons [9][10]. - Purchase Progress: As of January 27, the purchase progress for January ship - ments was 100% (4.704 million tons), 93.24% for February (8.858 million tons), 96.57% for March (11.588 million tons), 55.42% for April (6.373 million tons), 27.31% for May (3.141 million tons), 21.67% for June (2.384 million tons), 7.41% for July (0.726 million tons), and 2.2% for August (0.198 million tons) [9][10]. - Yield Forecast: The crop expert predicted that the Brazilian soybean yield would reach 179 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 178 million tons, but also emphasized that Brazilian soybean crops still faced risks from high - temperature and drought weather [10].