建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260203

1. Report Information - Report Industry: Eggs [1] - Report Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the current round of spot egg prices has likely emerged, and the futures price is mainly based on the expectation that the post - New Year's Day spot price will average around 3 yuan. Future price fluctuations will mainly affect the basis, and it is difficult to drive significant price movements in the futures market unless the expectation changes. - The seesaw effect between the near - and far - month contracts will continue, but the market rhythm is difficult to control and may be volatile. - Before the Spring Festival, the overall strategy should be range - bound trading, and there is no suggestion for unilateral trends [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The 03, 04, and 05 egg contracts closed at 2975, 3206, and 3445 respectively, with changes of - 1.13%, - 1.26%, and + 0.17% compared to the previous settlement. The trading volumes were 172,097, 82,748, and 56,761, and the open interests were 180,423, 165,667, and 100,859, with changes of - 20,064, + 558, and + 3,807 respectively. The average spot price in the main production areas was 3.77 yuan/jin, down 0.27 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 4.07 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin from the previous day [7][8]. - Operation Suggestions: Adopt range - bound trading strategies before the Spring Festival, with no suggestion for unilateral trends [8]. 4.2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.00%. - Replenishment: In December 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as in November 2025 but significantly lower than the 45.98 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment volume from September to December 2025 was about 157.49 million, lower than the 182.14 million in the same period of the previous year, indicating a potential easing of medium - term production capacity pressure. - Culling Volume: The culling volume has been relatively high recently but has slightly declined. The culling volumes in the three weeks up to January 29 were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively. - Culling Age: As of January 29, the average culling age was 493 days, 3 days later than the previous week and 9 days later than the previous month [9][10]. 4.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data graphs, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer farming profits, the average price in the main egg production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 03 contract, the basis of the egg 03 contract, and the culling age [11][15][16].