Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by macro - factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chairman, leading to a weakening of market sentiment. Different industries show different trends, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, and some being affected by seasonal factors and cost - related factors. - For specific industries, there are differences in supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For example, some industries are in a state of supply - demand double - weakness, while others have a better supply - demand relationship. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Ethylene Glycol: In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [2]. - Hot Rolled Coil: It maintains inventory reduction, and the price drops. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities at low prices. The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [3]. - Meal Products: The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [4]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The risk appetite has significantly decreased, and the A - share market has declined under pressure. Suggest to control portfolio risks and wait for stability, and hold bilateral call option positions [5][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. The 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may oscillate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and curve strategies suggest narrowing the spread between ultra - long bonds and other varieties. Investors are advised to arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - The market has fallen sharply, and precious metals have erased last month's gains. Gold can be considered to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options after the market stabilizes. Silver prices may fluctuate greatly between 70 - 110 dollars, and it is recommended to wait and see. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a consolidation stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC disk oscillates downward. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is in a downward range. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [14]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk appetite have led to a decline in copper prices from high levels. In the short term, the price may return to fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract paying attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [15][18]. Alumina - The alumina market is in a wide - range oscillation around the industry cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [18][20]. Aluminum - The aluminum price has a high - volatility characteristic in the short term. It is recommended to make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases, and pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 [21][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 for arbitrage [24][26]. Zinc - The zinc price has fallen from high levels. The price has support below, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 24000. Adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy and a long - term long - at - low strategy [27][31]. Tin - The tin price has fallen by the limit. In the short term, it is recommended to participate cautiously, and in the long - term, maintain a long - at - low strategy [31][34]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to first decline with the macro - situation and then oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 128000 - 140000. It is recommended to operate within the range [35][37]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13200 - 14500. Pay attention to macro changes and steel - mill dynamics [38][40]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to continue to decline and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the risk of going long unilaterally on the left side is relatively large [41][44]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival order recovery and production - capacity regulation [46][47]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [48][49]. Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [50][51]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to try short positions, but be vigilant against macro and market - sentiment disturbances [52][55]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1250. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [56][60]. Coke - The coke price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1600 - 1800. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [61][63]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is expected to oscillate widely. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance and the February pricing of HBIS [64][66]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese - silicon price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 5600 - 6000. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance [67][70]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [71][72]. Live Pigs - The spot price may be supported in the short term, but the futures market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern [73][74]. Corn - The corn price has fallen due to increased supply. The decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent grain - selling rhythm and policy - release intensity [75][76]. Sugar - The raw - sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The domestic market is expected to oscillate around the previous high of 5300. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [77]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 14500 [79]. Eggs - The egg price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [81][82]. Oils and Fats - The vegetable - oil sector has fallen generally. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and market - sentiment impacts [83][85]. Jujubes - The jujube price is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend [87][89]. Apples - The apple price is affected by the inventory situation. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory situation [90][91]. Energy and Chemicals PX - The PX price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 7000 - 7100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes [92][93]. PTA - The PTA price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 5000 - 5100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes. Also, consider the positive spread of TA5 - 9 at low levels [94]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price follows the raw - material price. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee is high [95][96]. Bottle Chips - The bottle - chip price is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee of the main contract is high. Also, sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high levels [97][98]. Ethylene Glycol - In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [99][100]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [101]. Styrene - The styrene price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price has fallen, and the trading is weak. It is recommended to stop the previous long positions and wait and see [104][105]. PP - The PP price is in a state of supply - demand double - weakness and oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. Methanol - The methanol price has fallen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous long positions have been stopped [106]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda price is expected to be weakly stable. Pay attention to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [107][108]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be stable in the short term. Pay attention to the post - festival supply pressure and downstream demand [109][110]. Urea - The urea price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Pay attention to the factory's pre - festival order - receiving strategy and the release rhythm of agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand [111][112]. Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1250. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line changes and downstream glass - industry start - up situation [113][115]. Glass - The glass price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1000 - 1100. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line and inventory changes and macro - policies [114][116]. Natural Rubber - The natural - rubber price has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see, considering the support from the overseas production - reduction period [116][120]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic - rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the support of BR2604 at 12500 [120][122].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260203
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-02-03 00:50