有色套利早报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 3, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price in China is 100400, LME price is 12448, and the ratio is 8.26; March price in China is 98280, LME price is 12508, and the ratio is 8.10. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.88, with a profit of - 731.31, and the profit for spot export is - 3180.64 [1] - Zinc: Spot price in China is 25010, LME price is 3266, and the ratio is 7.66; March price in China is 24530, LME price is 3272, and the ratio is 5.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.29, with a profit of - 2060.16 [1] - Aluminum: Spot price in China is 23700, LME price is 2977, and the ratio is 7.96; March price in China is 23005, LME price is 2999, and the ratio is 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.36, with a profit of - 1179.22 [1] - Nickel: Spot price in China is 134750, LME price is 16431, and the ratio is 8.20. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.04, with a profit of - 1560.37 [1] - Lead: Spot price in China is 16625, LME price is 1913, and the ratio is 8.67; March price in China is 16760, LME price is 1961, and the ratio is 12.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a profit of 247.02 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 4590, - 4890, - 4600, and - 4550 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 618, 1134, 1659, and 2183 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 1270, - 1255, - 1220, and - 1265 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 232, 370, 508, and 646 [4] - Aluminum: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 1635, - 1665, - 1575, and - 1535 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 234, 370, 505, and 640 [4] - Lead: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 460, - 380, - 315, and - 280 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, and 531 [4] - Nickel: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 10260, - 10510, - 10190, and - 10140 respectively [4] - Tin: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is 9190, and the theoretical spread is 7871 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 2730 and - 1860 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 715 and 599 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 775 and - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 273 and 175 [5] - Lead: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 515 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 196 and 307 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.01, 4.27, 5.86, 0.94, 1.37, and 0.68 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.88, 4.22, 6.57, 0.92, 1.56, and 0.59 respectively [8]