LPG早报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]