农产品早报-20260203

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [3]. - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythms [4]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar, with long - term trends depending on the degree of global surplus [5]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [7]. - Egg prices may face pressure in the second quarter, and the key is to monitor the post - holiday price drop and the resulting impact on chicken culling [14]. - Apple prices for high - quality goods are stable, while lower - quality goods' prices are weakening, and the inventory removal speed is accelerating [18]. - The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and the futures market is volatile [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, corn prices in some ports decreased (e.g., - 10 in Changchun and Jinzhou, - 20 in Shekou), while starch processing profit increased by 20 [3]. - Analysis: Corn prices are supported in the short - term by supply constraints and downstream demand, and long - term policies are key. Starch prices are supported in the short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption is crucial [3][4]. Sugar - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and import profit from Thailand decreased by 9, from Brazil decreased by 10 [5]. - Analysis: The international market expects increased production, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, with long - term trends related to global surplus [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 125, and 32S spinning profit increased by 101 [7]. - Analysis: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, egg prices in some regions decreased (e.g., - 0.13 in Hebei, - 0.14 in Liaoning), and the basis decreased by 266 [14]. - Analysis: Egg prices rebounded due to pre - holiday stocking but weakened later. Post - holiday price drop and chicken culling are key factors for second - quarter supply [14]. Apples - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the 1 - month basis increased by 64, the 5 - month basis increased by 138, and the 10 - month basis increased by 87 [18]. - Analysis: Apple trading is light, high - quality prices are stable, lower - quality prices are weakening, and inventory removal is accelerating [18]. Pigs - Price Changes: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, pig prices in some regions rebounded (e.g., + 0.20 in Henan Kaifeng, + 0.35 in Hubei Xiangyang), and the basis increased by 200 [18]. - Analysis: The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and futures market sentiment is volatile [18].