油脂油料早报-20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, at the high - end of the estimated range, with 740,004 tons exported to China, accounting for 56.46% of the total export inspection volume. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. 3. Summary according to relevant catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, with a market expectation of 600,000 - 1,400,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,336,311 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons (229.8 million bushels), compared with 6.62 million short tons (221 million bushels) in November 2025 and 6.53 million short tons (218 million bushels) in December 2024. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. Production Forecast - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. Harvest Progress - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. Export Data - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 27 to February 2, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [4].