大越期货纯碱早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - The main logic is the mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry, with high supply and falling terminal demand. The inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, and this situation has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1204 yuan/ton to 1203 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.08%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1160 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 44 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.27% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 168.35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 94.50 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.19%. The weekly production was 78.13 tons, including 42.11 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, new production capacity was continuously added. In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.10 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 154.42 tons, an increase of 1.51% compared to the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The expected full - production time of Phase II of Yuangxing Energy's production line was postponed [3]. - Negative factors: Enterprises' production lines were expected to resume production, and there was no new maintenance plan in the near future, so production was expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5].