大越期货玻璃早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass fundamentals are weak, and the short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile and weak operation [2]. - The supply of glass is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, the factory inventory of glass has increased, and it is expected that the glass will be in a low - level volatile and weak operation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures and the spot price of Shahe safety large boards remained unchanged, with a change rate of 0.00%, and the main basis also had no change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 940 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side Glass Production Profit No specific profit data is provided, but it is mentioned that the glass production profit has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry due to low profit [2][4]. Glass Production Lines and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period [19]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [21]. Fundamentals - Demand Float Glass Monthly Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [25]. Other Demand - Related Indicators - The report also mentions indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operating and order status of downstream processing plants, but no specific data is provided [26][28][35]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [40]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | | | -1.734% | | 2018 | 5162 | 5098 | 5091 | -3.59% | -2.64% | -1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | -2.13% | -0.59% | -0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | -1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289% | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244% | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | -0.56% | -1.57% | -0.834% | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | -2.97% | 0.84% | -0.934% | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 3.94% | -1.15% | -0.90% | [41]