大越期货油脂早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - For soybean oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 for Y2605; for palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300 for P2605; for rapeseed oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 for OI2605 [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 356, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - Market trend: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the soybean oil situation, with the MPOB report data and the change in January export data and supply pressure [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,014, with a basis of 0, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - Market trend: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main positions: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two oils in terms of the MPOB report and palm oil supply situation [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,140, with a basis of 1,004, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - Market trend: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4] 3.4 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to rise: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Likely to fall: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has continued to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]