大越期货尿素早报-20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of domestic urea are neutral, with current daily production and operating rates at high levels compared to the same period. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. The comprehensive inventory is decreasing, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory stands at 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders remaining acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are high year - on - year. As maintenance work resumes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. Comprehensive inventory is decreasing, with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate is expected to continue rising, downstream orders are acceptable, reserve demand is increasing, and inventory is de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Likely to Rise: The inventory is decreasing, and orders are improving [5]. - Likely to Fall: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. Spot and Futures Market Information | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1770, with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1770, down 20; the price of Henan spot is 1770, with no change; the FOB China price is 2934 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 05 contract is 1787, down 3; the price of UR01 is 1754, down 4; the price of UR05 is 1787, down 3; the price of UR09 is 1755, down 10. The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 17, up 3 [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 11,256, down 1,434. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 0.945 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 0.144 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |