焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-3）-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Coking Coal - In the short - term, coking coal supply will be tight as some mines enter the holiday and more will shut down for the Spring Festival, while demand has declined as some coking enterprises have completed winter storage replenishment. The overall coking coal price is stable but slightly weak [2]. - With the downstream coking and steel enterprises in stable production and still having some replenishment needs, but limited by poor steel mill profits, weak terminal demand, and shrinking steel market trading volume, the demand for coking coal will be limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short - term [2]. 2.2. Coke - After the first round of coke price increase, coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased, but high raw coal prices limit their profit and production increase space. Some low - inventory steel mills still have replenishment needs, and coking enterprises' coke inventory is decreasing. However, due to the volatile finished product prices and obvious off - season characteristics, the steel mills' replenishment is limited. The coke supply - demand structure is approaching balance, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable or slightly strong in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term as more coal mines will shut down for the Spring Festival. Some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, demand has decreased, new orders are few, auction conditions have weakened, and the overall price is stable but weak [2]. 3.1.2. Coke - After the first - round price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, most are operating at normal loads, supply is relatively stable. Although some coal prices have declined, the overall coking coal price is still high, providing cost support [8]. 3.2. Basis Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - The spot market price is 1,180, and the basis is 38.5, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. 3.2.2. Coke - The spot market price is 1,620, and the basis is - 60.5, indicating the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. 3.3. Inventory Analysis 3.3.1. Coking Coal - Steel mill inventory is 801万吨, port inventory is 295万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861万吨, and the total sample inventory is 1,957万吨, a decrease of 21万吨 from last week [2]. 3.3.2. Coke - Steel mill inventory is 626万吨, port inventory is 187万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45万吨, and the total sample inventory is 858万吨, a decrease of 1万吨 from last week [8]. 3.4. Market Trend Analysis 3.4.1. Coking Coal - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [2][3]. 3.4.2. Coke - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing [8]. 3.5. Price Information 3.5.1. Coking Coal - Imported Russian and Australian coking coal spot prices at various ports are provided on February 2, 2026, with some prices having changes [11]. 3.5.2. Coke - Port metallurgical coke price indices on February 2, 2026, including different types, ports, origins, and prices, are shown, and most prices remain unchanged [13]. 3.6. Inventory Changes - Coking coal port inventory is 295万吨, a decrease of 0.1万吨 from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1万吨, an increase of 1万吨 from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3万吨, a decrease of 69.2万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 42.5万吨, an increase of 3.5万吨 from last week [25]. - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8万吨, an increase of 4.3万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 626.7万吨, a decrease of 13.3万吨 from last week [30]. 3.7. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].