大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, factors such as cost support from oil prices and neutral industry inventory are considered, but downstream demand is weak. For PP, similar factors like cost support and increased PDH device maintenance are noted, along with weak downstream demand in the off - season [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Due to geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are strong with short - term declines, affecting polyolefins. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6880 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 34.8 tons (-3.1), which is relatively high [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, and the industry inventory is neutral [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Geopolitical disturbances affect oil prices and polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the plastic weaving and pipe industries is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6720 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The PP 2605 contract basis is 6, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 40.1 tons (-3.2), which is relatively high [7] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with short positions increasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, the industry inventory is neutral, and PDH device maintenance has increased [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-60), the 05 contract price is 6878 (-136), the basis is 2, the warehouse receipt is 9308 (-71), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 34.8 tons, and the social inventory is 48.5 tons [9] - PP: The spot delivery product price is 6720 (-30), the 05 contract price is 6714 (-110), the basis is 6, the warehouse receipt is 17223 (-13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 40.1 tons, and the social inventory is 26.9 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, with capacity showing an overall increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 3584.5, with a growth rate of 12.4% [14] - Polypropylene: Similar to polyethylene, from 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, and capacity also shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5% [16]