2025年四季度法国市场快照（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The French economy is projected to grow by approximately 0.9% year-over-year in 2025, with inflation pressures easing towards the end of the year, as the Consumer Price Index reached a low of 0.8% in December [8] - Business bankruptcies in France reached record levels in 2025, indicating increased stress on leveraged companies due to higher interest rates and slower growth [8] - The public deficit was reported at 5.4% of GDP in 2025, exceeding the government's target of 5% [8] - The CAC 40 index finished 2025 up 13.3%, supported by sectors such as luxury, aerospace, and energy, although some major companies faced challenges [9] - Venture capital (VC) deal activity showed signs of recovery, particularly in the software sector, with Brevo raising €500 million and achieving a valuation of €1 billion [11][12] - Private equity (PE) activity in Q4 2025 was the weakest since Q2 2020, with the largest deal being PAI Partners acquiring a majority stake in Cyrus Herez for €1.2 billion [13] Market Overview - In Q4 2025, the total deal value for venture capital was €2.0 billion, while private equity deal value was €11.4 billion [6] - The median deal value for venture capital was €13.9 million, and the year-to-date return was 13.3% with a P/E ratio of 18.6x [6] - The report highlights a total of 282 deals in Q4, with a notable increase in VC deal count quarter-over-quarter [11] Venture Capital Activity - VC fundraising remained low throughout 2025, but more capital was raised compared to 2024, with the largest close being Sofinnova Capital raising €650 million for its 11th fund [12] - The information technology sector accounted for 60% of VC deal value in Q4 2025 [11] - The top five VC deals by value in Q4 included Brevo at €500 million and Adcytherix at €105 million [35] Private Equity Activity - PE exit activity continued to decline, with buyouts accounting for around 80% of exit value in Q4 [14] - The total capital raised in PE was roughly flat year-over-year, with just over €10 billion raised in 2025 [14] - The top five PE deals by value in Q4 included Cyrus Herez at €1.2 billion and Towerlink France at €391 million [63] City Comparison - Paris led in VC deal value with €46.1 billion and PE deal value with €171.2 billion, significantly outpacing other cities in France [18] - Other notable cities included Lyon and Bordeaux, with VC deal values of €2.1 billion and €1.2 billion respectively [18] Fundraising Activity - VC fundraising activity showed a total of €3.3 billion raised in 2025, with a notable increase in fund count [49] - The top five closed VC funds in 2025 included Sofinnova Capital XI raising €650 million [55]