菜粕早报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2240 - 2300. Affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term but will maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium - term [9]. - After the overall negative factors are digested, rapeseed meal will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary of Each Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, reducing the expected supply in China [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for Chinese rapeseed meal and the fact that oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors are the short - term off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - The current main logical focus of the market is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From January 23 to February 2, the trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2390 - 2480 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0 or relatively small, with a maximum of 33,000 tons on January 23 [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian from January 26 to February 2 was between 2430 - 2480 yuan, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2269 - 2325 yuan [15]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 from January 23 to February 2, with a reduction of 15 on January 23 compared to the previous day [17]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and other data showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 1.71 in 2016 to 10.56 in 2025 [19]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed meal's initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, and other data also showed fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 4.16 in 2016 to 9.85 in 2025 [21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market returned to an oscillating state. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low - level inventory supports the market. With good post - Spring Festival demand expectations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term and range - bound oscillating in the medium - term [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2460 yuan, with a basis of 184 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease from last week's 44.95 tons, and a 12.79% year - on - year decrease from the 50,200 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main positions: The main short positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded. After the overall negative impact is digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].