2025年下半年全球基金银行业展望影响私人市场的趋势（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The focus in private markets has shifted from interest rates and inflation to tariffs and trade policies, which have reached levels not seen in a century, increasing operational and investment risks for funds [4][33] - Fundraising sentiment is stable but demanding, with capital flowing towards large platforms or niche managers, while those in the middle face tougher conditions [5] - AI adoption in private markets has accelerated, with nearly all firms exploring AI tools, although governance and clear policies are still lacking [6][116] Macro - The federal funds rate is expected to decrease, with market pricing indicating two cuts by year-end and another two next year, although inflation concerns may affect borrowing costs [19][21] - The effective US tariff rate has risen significantly, impacting private markets and leading funds to manage FX risk through increased hedging [33][36] Private Market Trends - Fundraising has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but there is a split in capital flow, with large and niche funds performing better than mid-sized funds [5][52] - Investors expect moderate growth in AUM, with nearly 70% anticipating an increase of 10% or more over the next 12 months [62] - The fundraising environment is characterized by a bifurcation, where large funds are aggregating capital while niche funds succeed through sectoral expertise [63] Spotlight: AI and Firm Operations - The era of AI hesitation has ended, with most firms now exploring AI tools, although implementation remains a challenge [116] - Firms are focusing on building data infrastructure to maximize the benefits of AI, as many lack the necessary data foundation [117][118] - AI tools are primarily being used in areas where junior staff work, but hiring for junior positions remains strong as firms view AI as a complement rather than a replacement [129][130]