集运早报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances are high. Under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, the expectation of a rush to ship in March, the expectation of an off - season in April, and the suppression of long - term contract prices, the 04 contract will fluctuate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. The upward space depends more on capital behavior. With the current basis of 300 points, beware of long - position capital driving up the price. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the bearish logic of the off - season and tax rebates. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical disturbances [3][30] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Contract Information - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1720.0, up 0.19%, with a basis of 72.1, a trading volume of 294, an open interest of 2339, and an open interest change of - 212 [2][29] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1184.6, down 3.46%, with a basis of 607.5, a trading volume of 32818, an open interest of 33806, and an open interest change of - 2075 [2][29] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1513.1, down 1.93%, with a basis of 279.0, a trading volume of 5944, an open interest of 12598, and an open interest change of 295 [2][29] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1607.9, up 0.06%, with a basis of 184.2, a trading volume of 1131, an open interest of 1450, and an open interest change of - 144 [2][29] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1130.0, up 0.67%, with a basis of 662.1, a trading volume of 2504, an open interest of 7884, and an open interest change of - 250 [2][29] 3.2 Month - spread Information - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 535.4, the value two days ago was 489.7, the value three days ago was 467.8, the daily change was 45.7, and the weekly change was 11.8 [2][29] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 328.5, the value two days ago was - 315.8, the value three days ago was - 326.3, the daily change was - 12.7, and the weekly change was - 80.2 [2][29] 3.3 Index Information - Spot (European route): Updated weekly on Mondays, as of 2026/2/2, the value was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from the previous period and down 4.86% from the period before the previous one [2][29] - SCFI (European route): Updated weekly on Fridays, as of 2026/1/30, the value was 1418 dollars/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period and down 4.83% from the period before the previous one [2][29] 3.4 European Route Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][31] 3.5 News - On 2/3, the Israeli army's chief of staff said that the Israeli army is in a "period of enhancing war preparedness" [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that Iran is willing to suspend its nuclear program, and senior US and Iranian officials are communicating directly via text messages. Senior US and Iranian officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions between the two countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and US envoy Witkoff are communicating directly via text messages. Sources said that Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program, which is regarded as a major concession. However, it prefers to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani recently met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran can agree to transport its enriched uranium inventory to Russia, similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that the US - Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to be held on Friday, and the US envoy has a busy schedule this week [4][31]