原油成品油早报-20260203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, WTI decreased by $3.07, BRENT decreased by $3.02, and DUBAI increased by $3.05. Other indicators such as spreads and crack spreads also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - US and Iranian senior officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions. Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program and is more inclined to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iran's National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran could agree to transport its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia, similar to the practice under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [3] - Israel will put forward three "no" requirements for Iran in its talks with US President's Special Envoy Witkoff, namely, Iran must agree not to develop a nuclear program, not to develop a ballistic missile program, and not to support armed "agents" including so - called "terrorist organizations" that threaten Israel. Israel still believes that "military strikes to overthrow the Iranian regime are 'possible'" [3] - US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi. The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce its tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually cancel tariffs and non - tariff barriers on the US. Modi also promised to "buy US products" and purchase more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal and other products [3] 3. Inventory - In the week of January 23, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day [3] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54% [3] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year [3] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [3] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3]