基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that in the short - term, the meal products are bearish, while in the long - term, they are bullish. This is due to the combined influence of factors such as Sino - US and Sino - Canadian tariffs, the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of the domestic market [3][37]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Sino - US and Sino - Canadian Tariffs - Sino - US short - term truce: In October 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides reached a trade "cease - fire" agreement. The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff was suspended for another year. China adjusted its counter - measures accordingly. The US also suspended the implementation of its "50% penetration rule" for export control for one year, and China suspended relevant counter - measures for one year. The two sides also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises [7]. - Sino - Canadian tariffs returned to the level before the conflict. - Potential conflicts in tariffs and trade policies still exist: The possibility of direct confrontation between the US and China is extremely small, but there are still uncertainties in the import of US soybeans, South American soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed in the future [10]. 3.2 Bumper Harvest of South American Soybeans, Short - term Pressure on Meal Products - Brazilian soybeans have completely replaced US soybeans in the Chinese export market. - The bumper harvest of South American soybeans is gradually being realized, putting short - term pressure on meal products. The report provides data on the soybean yields of the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2016 - 2025, as well as the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months. It also shows that the import volume of soybeans has decreased recently, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have continued to decline, the procurement of domestic downstream enterprises has rebounded from a low level, the inventory of soybeans and meal products in oil mills has continued to decline, the pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and continued to decline month - on - month, the pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, the piglet price has rebounded slightly, the domestic pig farming profit is slightly profitable, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [11][16][17]. 3.3 Short - term Bearish and Long - term Bullish for Meal Products - Factors putting pressure on bean prices: The listing of South American soybeans and the expected inventory accumulation of oil mills due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. - Uncertain factors: Whether there will be weather speculation as the weather has been good for soybeans in the past three years. - Bullish factors: The planting area of new - season US soybeans may be further reduced, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans will be high in the future, with medium - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the domestic pig farming scale first decreases and then increases [38][40]. 3.4 Overall Judgment of Other Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products, except for oils and fats, are at near - decade lows. - There is an upward trend in agricultural protection policies in various countries. - Agricultural products have the characteristics that supply elasticity is greater than demand elasticity, with cost - line support and potential supply - side weather speculation. - The pig industry is in the final stage of capacity elimination, and the inventory of pigs and sows is close to the regulatory target. The far - month premium of pigs is unfavorable for bulls. Among oils and fats, palm oil is the strongest, with an enhanced linkage between crude oil prices and oil prices, different planting cycles of palm oil compared to soybean and rapeseed oils, and inconsistent biodiesel policies in the US and Indonesia [49][50][59].