瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port methanol inventory is expected to decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume. The domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased last week, but with the load increase of the Ningbo Fude MTO unit, the short - term MTO industry operating rate is expected to rise slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodity prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 817,035 lots, an increase of 3,725 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 140,362 lots, a decrease of 10,556 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,082, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 27 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.26 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons. The methanol import profit is - 14.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.26 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%. The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42%; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 811 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.79%, a decrease of 2.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.77%, a decrease of 2.26% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 28, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% increase. As of January 28, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons from the previous data. East China accumulated inventory, with an increase of 4.76 tons; South China reduced inventory, with a decrease of 3.3 tons. The domestic methanol production increased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was less than the output of restored production capacity. As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a decrease of 3.2% [2]