苹果产业日报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The inventory of apples for the Spring Festival preparation has not changed significantly. Merchants mainly continue to package their own supplies. In some low - price producing areas, the trading of fruit farmers' goods has slightly improved. Merchants mainly package gift boxes, and fruit farmers are actively selling their goods, with prices determined by quality. The trading of high - price and high - quality apples in Shaanxi, such as Luochuan apples, remains sluggish, and the market situation has not changed much. The Spring Festival preparation is gradually entering the incremental stage. In the producing areas, the shipping speed has significantly accelerated, with the Gansu producing area performing better than others. Merchants still mainly ship their own inventory. As of January 28, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated compared to the previous week and is slightly higher than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi, it is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous week. In the Shandong producing area, the overall packaging and shipping have increased, and some pre - packed gift boxes have been shipped to the market, with the shipment accelerating, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is still average. In Shaanxi, the inventory removal has slightly accelerated, and the transactions in Weinan and Xianyang have improved compared to before, with more merchants packing and shipping, and the fruit farmers' goods are mainly sold in two - polar sources. In the sales areas, there is a large backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles, and the sales speed of gift - boxed goods is average. In terms of price, the price of general - quality fruit farmers' goods is stable with a weak trend, while the price of high - quality goods is stable [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9,485 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 101,361 hands, a decrease of 8,125 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,422 hands, and the previous value was 909 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - grade and second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 51.2851 million tons, and the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg compared to the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in the country is 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the previous week, and in Shaanxi is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% compared to the previous week. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared to the previous period. The monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7% year - on - year, and the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 17.75355 million US dollars, an increase of 6.57409 million US dollars compared to the previous period. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged apples of 80 is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared to the previous period; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg compared to the previous period; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.4, an increase of 6.2 compared to the previous period; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 7.8; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.4, an increase of 11.6 compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 26.29%, an increase of 0.84% compared to the previous period; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 26.29%, an increase of 0.84% compared to the previous period [2] Suggested Attention Points - Pay attention to the cold - storage inventory data on Thursday [2]