瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract rebounded but faced pressure. Macroscopically, Iranian President Pezeshkiyan ordered the initiation of nuclear negotiations with the US, and high - level negotiations may be held in the next few days. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased simultaneously this period. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, the molten iron output remained below 2.3 million tons, the iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and the supply remained relatively loose. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the green bar is expanding. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 518,849 lots, a decrease of 1,835 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 478 lots, a decrease of 5,020 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 2,900 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, a decrease of 0.71 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 847 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 837 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 757 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 60 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.40 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.80 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.14, an increase of 0.01. The estimated import cost was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,094.60 million tons, an increase of 116.20 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,669.20 million tons, an increase of 43.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,758.26 million tons, an increase of 261.73 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,968.59 million tons, an increase of 579.77 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 29 days, an increase of 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.94%, a decrease of 0.82%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.78 million tons, a decrease of 2.49 million tons. The BDI index was 2,124.00, a decrease of 24.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.87 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.345 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.49 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 79.02%, an increase of 0.36%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.45%, a decrease of 0.08%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.11%, a decrease of 0.02%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.28%, a decrease of 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.42%, an increase of 0.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.20%, a decrease of 1.54% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,094.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,521.0 million tons, an increase of 126.7 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,820.4 million tons, a decrease of 17.0 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,619.1 million tons, an increase of 131.5 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 700.6 million tons, an increase of 143.7 million tons. From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,669.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,484.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,288.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 million tons [2]