多晶硅月报：多晶硅供需双减，依旧震荡关注产能调控进程及需求恢复-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, but after the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to the recovery of orders in March and the progress of production capacity regulation. With weak demand, polysilicon production is expected to decrease in February, and the output will be further reduced to 8.2 - 8.5 tons. Although the market is still oversupplied and inventory is accumulating, the inventory accumulation slope has slowed down. The futures price has fallen below the previous support level of 48,000 yuan/ton, and it is expected to find support at 45,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the later production reduction and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The average spot price of polysilicon has decreased slightly, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The price difference between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon has widened. In the futures market, it fell rapidly at the beginning of the month under the influence of anti - monopoly news, then fluctuated in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan from mid - January, and dropped significantly at the end of the month due to weak demand and inventory pressure. In the equity market, many photovoltaic industry chain companies had significant pre - losses in their 2025 performance in mid - January, but then rose sharply due to the influence of space photovoltaics and then fell back [7]. 3.2 Supply - In January, the production is expected to be about 100,800 tons, and in February, it is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons to 80,000 - 85,000 tons. The significant decrease in February's production is related to the production reduction of many enterprises and the decrease in production days. It is expected that the weekly production in February will remain at about 20,000 tons, with a limited decline compared to the previous month [7][24][27]. 3.3 Demand - In January, the demand and production scheduling of the direct downstream silicon wafers increased, but the terminal demand and the production scheduling of battery cells and silicon wafers decreased, with overall weak demand. The silicon wafer production in January is expected to increase by 5% to over 44GW, but the demand is weak and the inventory has increased by 4.1GW to 27.29GW. In February, the demand is expected to remain weak and the silicon wafer production scheduling will also decline [7][39]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory continues to accumulate. In January, the polysilicon inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 333,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts increased by 4,060 lots to 8,090 lots, equivalent to 24,270 tons [7][89][91]. 3.5 Valuation - The market is still oversupplied, but the excess volume has narrowed, and the futures price is at a discount to the average spot price [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for now. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to the spot transaction situation [4]. - Arbitrage: The window for positive inter - month arbitrage is open. One can buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract [4]. - Options: Wait and see for now. When the volatility is low, one can buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3.7 Cost - Profit Analysis - The increase in polysilicon price is beneficial to the profit repair of photovoltaic products, especially polysilicon. In the third quarter of 2025, the production profit of polysilicon turned positive. However, due to the significant decline in downstream demand and no obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter, there is no expectation of continuous profit growth even if the polysilicon price remains high [62]. 3.8 Import - Export - In December 2025, the polysilicon import volume was 0.18 tons, a significant increase of 77% month - on - month and a decrease of 43% year - on - year. The export volume decreased to 0.16 tons, and the net export turned into net import, but the whole year still maintained a net export. The silicon wafer export volume in December 2025 was 0.97 tons, an increase of 49.4% month - on - month and 122.3% year - on - year. The solar cell export volume in December was 1.37 billion, a decrease of 10.9% month - on - month and an increase of 66.9% year - on - year [65][74][78].