铂钯金期货日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, market sentiment is weak, and the high - volatility trend in the precious metal market may continue. The platinum - palladium market may show a wide - range oscillation pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium". The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1800/oz and $1500/oz respectively. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum futures main contract is 572.95 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the palladium futures main contract is 450.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 35.75 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract position is 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots, and the palladium main - contract position is 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 566.81 yuan/gram, and the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River region is 421.00 yuan/gram, with an increase of 30.00 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract basis is 30.79 yuan/gram, and the palladium main - contract basis is - 29.55 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.75 yuan/gram. The non - commercial long positions of platinum and palladium in CFTC are 9966.00 and 3003.00 contracts respectively, with decreases of 243.00 and 342.00 contracts respectively. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, an increase of 0.49, the real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 1.94%, an increase of 0.04%, and the VIX volatility index is 16.34, a decrease of 1.10. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US; the US will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%; the US House Speaker is confident to end the partial government shutdown; the Fed's Bostic expects no interest rate cuts in 2026; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI index reached a new high since August 2022; the Bank of Japan is more aware of the need for timely interest rate hikes. The sentiment in the overseas precious metal market has recovered, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's new vehicle emission policy may increase the demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces, and the increase in the penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The US ADP employment change on February 4 at 21:15, the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision on February 5 at 21:15, and the release of the US January non - farm payroll report (time to be determined). [2]