宏观利率周报（20260126-20260130）：“开门红”预期仍强，债市修复空间或有限-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, pulling the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for the whole year to 0.6%, but the profit margin remains at a historical low. [1] - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The input price was stronger than the finished product price, and the trend of squeezing enterprise profits still exists. Recently, the rotation of commodity prices is mainly driven by the cost side rather than overheated demand, which has limited suppression on the bond market. [1] - The economic data is weak. The long Spring Festival holiday in February may hinder credit issuance. Coupled with the recent stock market fluctuations and commodity price adjustments, short - term favorable factors are concentrated. Considering that it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the PPI is in the cycle of turning positive, if the interest rate continues to decline, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing the long - end interest rate in the short term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market News - Diplomatic Event: The British Prime Minister visited China again after an 8 - year interval. During the visit, China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including promoting the development of a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership, holding a new round of strategic dialogue, economic and financial dialogue, and other mechanism - based dialogues, and establishing a China - UK financial working group. China is also considering implementing a unilateral visa - free policy for British citizens and reducing the import tariff rate of whisky from 10% to 5%. [2][9] - Industrial Policy: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to promote the development of new fields such as space tourism during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including accelerating the iteration of sub - orbital and orbital space tourism aircraft products, and conducting related flight verifications. It will also carry out the demonstration of the "Tianguangkaiwu" major project. [2][9] - Real Estate Policy: Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located. [2][10] - Consumption Policy: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects: stimulating the development vitality of key fields, cultivating the development momentum of potential fields, and strengthening support and guarantee. [2][10] - Data Security Policy: The Cyberspace Administration of China solicited opinions on the classification and grading rules for financial information service data. The "Guidelines for the Classification and Grading of Financial Information Service Data (Draft for Comment)" classifies financial information service data into three primary categories: business data, user data, and enterprise data, with further subdivisions. [2][10] - Financial Data: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 16.1% year - on - year, with solar power generation and wind power generation having significant growth. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year in 2025, reversing the three - year decline trend. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a reduction of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. [2][11][13] Overseas Key Data and Events - Federal Reserve Decision: The Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged with a 10 - to - 2 vote. Two members opposed and advocated a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. [2][14] - US Government Issue: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the Senate, and the US federal government faces the risk of partial "shutdown" again. [2][14] - Exchange Rate Observation: The US Treasury Department included 10 economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea in the exchange - rate observation list, claiming that the RMB was significantly undervalued. [2][14] - Canada's Action: Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that a formal review of the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would be launched in a few weeks. [2][14] - South Korea's Semiconductor: South Korea's semiconductor exports were strong in January, with the total export amount reaching $20.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of more than 102%. [2][15] - Precious Metal Market: US President Trump's nomination of Wash as the Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a sharp sell - off in the precious metal market. Spot gold had an intraday decline of nearly 13%, and spot silver plunged by more than 35%. [2][15] Market Performance - Stock and Bond Market: This week, the stock market fluctuated. The yields of most 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds declined, with the yield of the 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond falling to 1.8112%. The yield of the 30 - year ChinaBond treasury bond rose slightly to 2.289%, and the term spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds widened again. [1]