建信期货生猪日报-20260204

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 3rd, the main pig contract 2605 opened slightly lower, then冲高回落 and closed in the negative. The highest price was 11,685 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,565 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,017 lots to 339,037 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 3rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.56 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - Supply: Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the Spring Festival. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises may decline month - on - month. In the first ten days, the enthusiasm of breeders to sell pigs has increased and the rhythm has accelerated. The slaughter volume will be significantly released around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month [7]. - Demand: The spot price has rebounded to a high level and the Spring Festival is approaching, so second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Terminal consumer demand is average. Schools are on holiday one after another, group meals and other consumption may decrease, and the sales of white - striped pigs are poor. In the short term, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month in early February. On February 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,000 heads, a decrease of 500 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 heads, and a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, both supply and demand will increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will fluctuate. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. There are still some fattened pigs from second - fattening to be sold after the Spring Festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. At the same time, it will enter the consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, and the support for the market is insufficient. Contracts 03/05 will be mainly weak in shock [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of January, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising in the future was 12.18 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 0.82 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg. The cost of raising pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of raising purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.79 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.36 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1 yuan/kg compared with 14.9 yuan/kg [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of January 30, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 46 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/head; the profit of raising pigs with purchased piglets was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 221 yuan/head [12]. - As of January 20, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 37.7%, a ten - day increase of 3.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 7.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 24 percentage points [12]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in January was 407.8 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 103 yuan/head and a month - on - month increase of 33.8% [12]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in the country in January was 128.6 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 kg (a decrease of 0.9%) and a year - on - year increase of 4.9 kg (a year - on - year increase of 3.96%) [12]. - In 2025, 719.73 million pigs were slaughtered, a year - on - year increase of 17.16 million heads (an increase of 2.4%). Among them, the number of pigs slaughtered in the four quarters was 194.76 million, 171.43 million, 163.73 million, and 189.81 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons (an increase of 4.1%), and the output reached a record high. Among them, the pork output in the four quarters was 16.02 million, 14.18 million, 13.48 million, and 15.70 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [12]