燃料油早报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst continued to strengthen, reaching a five - year high year - on - year. After the crack spread rose, it fluctuated. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened, and Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased significantly. The low - sulfur crack spread of MF0.5 declined, reaching a historical low year - on - year, and the monthly spread was at a historical low for the same period. In terms of inventory, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, EIA residue oil continued to be depleted, ARA residue oil inventory increased, and the inventory increase in Fujairah accelerated. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics tilted towards the United States. Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, and the price of Merey crude oil has risen. Recently, the Iran situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380. High - sulfur spot tightened, and the crack spread rebounded. In the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products. Attention should be paid to over - heating of internal and external sentiment, and the low - sulfur external market remains weak [3][4] Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 increased by 14.86, 16.77, 17.25, and 1.91 respectively. The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 and LGO - Brent M1 spreads changed by 0.51 and 0.00 respectively, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 spread changed by - 0.48 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - Swap Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, and Singapore VLSFO M1 increased, while the Singapore GO M1 price also showed an upward trend. The spreads of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 and Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 changed accordingly [1] - Spot Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the FOB 380cst and FOB VLSFO prices in Singapore increased by 5.89 and 2.53 respectively. The 380 - basis increased by 1.61, the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.2, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.7 [2] Domestic FU Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 increased by 29, 24, and 30 respectively. The spreads of FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 5, - 6, and 1 respectively [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 increased by 21, 40, and 33 respectively. The spreads of LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 19, 7, and 12 respectively [3]