《金融》日报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Futures Index Spread: The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various futures index spreads, including those of IF, IH, IC, and IM. It also shows cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1] - Treasury Bond Futures Spread: It details the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles. [2] - Precious Metals: In the short term, as market sentiment stabilizes, gold may stop falling and rebound, and the bottom of the stage is expected to be gradually established, but bullish confidence needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 75 - 95 dollars due to regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Palladium prices will enter a consolidation stage after a short - term rebound. [3] - Container Shipping Industry: The settlement price indices of container shipping, such as SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI, have declined. Futures prices of some contracts have increased, while the basis of the main contract has decreased. Global container shipping capacity supply has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related and overseas economic indicators have shown positive changes. [4] 3. Summary by Category Futures Index Spread - IF: The current - to - spot spread is - 7.11, with a change of - 2.64 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 73.70%, and the full - history quantile is 45.00%. [1] - IH: The current - to - spot spread is - 1.58, with a change of - 2.64 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 54.00%, and the full - history quantile is 47.10%. [1] - IC: The current - to - spot spread is 129.15, with a change of - 4.70 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 91.80%, and the full - history quantile is 77.20%. [1] - IM: The current - to - spot spread is - 26.10, with a change of - 109.37 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 60.00%, and the full - history quantile is 51.10%. [1] - Cross - variety Ratios: CSI 500/SSE 300 is 1.7782, with a change of 0.0333 from the previous day; CSI 500/SSE 50 is 2.7308, with a change of 0.0545; SSE 300/SSE 50 is 1.5357, with a change of 0.0019; CSI 1000/SSE 300 is 1.7616, with a change of 0.0300. [1] Treasury Bond Futures Spread - Basis: TS basis is 1.2825, with a change of 0.0172 from the previous day; TF basis is 1.5293, with a change of - 0.0105; T basis is 1.2073, with a change of 0.0123; TL basis is 1.1032, with a change of 0.2674. [2] - Cross - period Spreads: For example, the current - to - next - quarter spread of TS is - 0.0420, with a change of 0.0040 from the previous day. [2] - Cross - variety Spreads: TS - TF is - 3.4910, with a change of - 0.0210 from the previous day; TS - T is - 5.8460, with a change of 0.0140; TF - T is - 2.3550, with a change of 0.0350. [2] Precious Metals - Domestic Futures: AU2604 contract closed at 1093.78 yuan/g, up 8.45% from the previous day; AG2604 contract closed at 21446 yuan/kg, down 13.64%. [3] - Foreign Futures: COMEX gold closed at 4970.50 dollars/ounce, up 6.19%; COMEX silver closed at 84.92 dollars/ounce, up 7.13%. [3] - Spot Prices: London gold is 4946.17 dollars/ounce, up 6.16%; London silver is 85.42 dollars/ounce, up 7.85%. [3] - Basis: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is 2.56, down 15.96 from the previous day; Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 154, up 1566. [3] - Ratios: COMEX gold/silver is 58.54, down 0.88% from the previous day; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 51.00, up 25.57%. [3] - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.28%, down 0.2%; US dollar index is 97.39, down 0.23%. [3] - Inventory and Positions: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 103032, unchanged; COMEX gold inventory is 35755533, up 0.37%. [3] Container Shipping Industry - Shipping Indices: SCFIS (European route) is 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from January 26th; SCFIS (US - West route) is 1101.40 points, down 14.91%. [4] - Futures Prices: EC2602 is 1737.8 points, up 1.03% from the previous day; EC2604 (main contract) is 1237.9 points, up 4.50%. [4] - Basis: The basis of the main contract is 554.2, down 8.77% from the previous day. [4] - Fundamentals: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3379.78 million TEU, up 0.03% from the previous day; Shanghai port on - time rate is 41.81%, up 4.53% from November. [4]