《农产品》日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term, seeking support at 4,100 ringgit. In the Chinese market, it needs to hold above 9,000 yuan, with strong support at 8,900 yuan. After consolidation, it will choose a new direction after the Spring Festival. - CBOT soybean oil is supported by US - India trade. In China, downstream demand is average, and spot basis quotes will fluctuate narrowly. - Rapeseed oil has weak rebound momentum due to lack of positive factors. Spot prices mainly follow the market [1]. Red Dates - The 25/26 production season of red dates has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Spot prices are basically stable, and futures are in a low - valuation range. The price of red dates is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - In the Shandong Qixia production area, the trading atmosphere has improved slightly, but the sales of farmers' goods are slow. In the sales areas, the arrival of apples in Guangdong has increased, but the digestion of general goods is slow. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6][9]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level between 14 - 15 cents. In the Chinese market, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the price is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment and face pressure around 5,300 yuan [13][14]. Corn - In the northeast, corn prices are stable with a weak trend; in the north - central, prices rise and fall. Demand from deep - processing enterprises has a small replenishment demand, while feed enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [16]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. The cotton industry has pressure and support. Cotton consumption is not weak. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate widely, with support around 14,500 yuan [20]. Eggs - In February, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to decline, but the market may accumulate a large amount of inventory. After the Spring Festival, there will be great pressure to sell goods. The demand is weak, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs may be supported in the short - term, but the 03 contract on the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to the off - season demand after the Spring Festival [23][25]. Meal Products - US soybeans maintain a range - bound pattern. In China, the supply of spot goods is loose, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still high. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may continue to decline [27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On February 3, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day; palm oil in Guangdong increased by 0.89%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.76%. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of various oils and fats also changed to different degrees. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot price difference decreased by 25.49% [1]. Red Dates - Price and Position: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of red dates increased by 1.13%. The price difference between different contracts and the basis of spot and futures also changed. The total number of futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was at a historical low. - Market Situation: The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - Price and Market: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of apples increased by 1.12%. The arrival volume of apples in some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.21%. - Production and Sales Areas: The trading situation in production and sales areas varies, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][9]. Sugar - Futures and Spot: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of sugar decreased, and the spot prices in Nanning and Kunming also decreased slightly. The import price and basis of Brazilian sugar also changed. - Industry Situation: The cumulative sugar production and sales in China decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased. The global sugar market surplus is expected to shrink [13][14]. Corn - Price and Inventory: On February 4, 2026, the price of corn futures increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and the feed enterprises' stocking was basically completed. - Market Outlook: Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm and policy release [16]. Cotton - Price and Inventory: On February 4, 2026, the futures price of cotton increased, and the spot price decreased. The commercial inventory decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory increased slightly. - Industry and Market: The cotton industry has both pressure and support. The demand for pre - festival replenishment by textile enterprises has basically ended, and the cotton price may fluctuate widely in the short - term [20]. Eggs - Price and Inventory: On February 4, 2026, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price of eggs decreased by 2.37%. The inventory in the production and circulation links increased. - Market Forecast: The supply - demand relationship of the egg market has returned to a loose state, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - Futures and Spot: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of pigs decreased, and the spot prices in most regions also decreased. The slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit changed. - Market Analysis: The spot price may be supported in the short - term, but the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [23][25]. Meal Products - Price and Spread: On February 4, 2026, the prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all decreased to different degrees. The basis and spread also changed. - Market Situation: US soybeans have limited drivers, and the domestic supply is loose. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may decline [27].