建信期货集运指数日报-20260204

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodity futures improved, driving the recovery of EC futures. However, from the perspective of the variety's fundamentals, the peak stage of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to continue the off - season performance, and the relatively high shipping capacity in March limits the possible rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots and boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The improvement of commodity futures sentiment drove the recovery of EC futures. The peak of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to decline. For example, the pre - Spring Festival quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route by Maersk was around $2100 - 2170 per big container, dropping to $2000 after the Spring Festival. The 2 - month quote of OCEAN Alliance is in the range of $2293 - 2430, and that of Premier Alliance is about $2035 in February and $2535 in March. Considering the slow resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the upcoming traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. The shipping capacity in March is relatively high in the off - season, limiting the rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts [8]. - Operation Suggestions: Short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. 2. Industry News - Container Shipping Market Adjustment: From January 26 to January 30, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust. The overall demand for ocean routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. On January 30, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than market expectations. Economic growth momentum slowed down, and shipping demand was weak. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1418/TEU, a 11.1% decrease from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot market booking prices continuing to decline. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and spot market booking prices continued to adjust. On January 30, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and US East basic ports were $1867/FEU and $2605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical News: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, but there were differences between Netanyahu and Trump. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against military actions [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on February 2, 2026, was 1792.14, a 3.6% decrease from January 26; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1101.4, a 14.9% decrease from January 26 [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on February 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]