LPG早报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The geopolitical risk is not over, and the rising external prices support the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the domestic downstream profit is poor, and there is inventory reduction before the festival, so the support for spot prices is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is slightly on the high side, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold wave in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different degrees of change. The daily change on February 3 compared with the previous day was -10 for South China LPG, 0 for East China LPG and Shandong LPG, -3 for propane CFR South China, -8 for propane CIF Japan, 2 for CP forecast contract price, -10 for Shandong ether - after carbon four, -20 for Shandong alkylated oil, 18 for paper import profit, and -39 for the main basis [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the market fluctuated upward. The cheapest spot, Shanghai Gaoqiao, was 4120, with a basis of -89. The 03 - 04 spread was -260 (+24), the 03 - 05 spread was -176 (+14), and the 04 - 05 spread was 84 (-10). The warehouse receipts of Wuchan Zhongda Chemical increased by 1000 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16), and the 03 - 05 spread was -203 (-8). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (-31), with 31 fewer from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external relationship weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold wave and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct) [1].