建信期货国债日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise, and the central bank generally conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable to short - term bonds. The market is more likely to play games based on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Market Conditions: The stock market recovered, but the sentiment in the bond market was still okay. Treasury bond futures opened lower and then fluctuated and recovered, with most closing slightly higher. The yields of major - term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed within a narrow range, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.4bp to 1.8110% by 16:30 [8][9] - Funding Market: The supply pressure of local bonds remains high this week. The central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival should be noted. The net repurchase of open - market reverse repurchase was 296.5 billion yuan today. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined. The DR overnight rate in the inter - bank deposit market dropped by about 5bp to 1.32%, the 7 - day capital interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.5%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.6% [10] - Conclusion: Although the current fundamental performance is weak, the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. In addition, the planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, and the large supply pressure worries the market. However, the current 1.82% yield level of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible future easing space. There is also support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank's current attitude of protecting the capital is relatively positive, so the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11] 3.2 Industry News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council approved the "Spatial Coordination Plan for the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area (2023 - 2035)", aiming to build a world - class metropolitan area with the capital as the core and a leading area for demonstrating Chinese - style modernization, and support the construction of the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei world - class urban agglomeration [13] - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Shandong on February 2. He emphasized the need to combine short - and long - term goals, start well at the beginning, implement policies in advance, and effectively promote development, benefit the people, and enhance the development potential. Intelligent manufacturing is the main direction for promoting industrial technological transformation and upgrading, and artificial intelligence technology should be actively used to reshape the entire production and manufacturing chain and cycle [13] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2026 "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" special event, covering six aspects: "good food", "good accommodation", "good travel", "good tourism", "good shopping", and "good entertainment". The event will be held from February 15 to 23 during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, aiming to create a full - scale and people - enjoyed Spring Festival consumption feast [13] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Interim Measures for the Deduction of Input Tax on Long - term Assets", which came into effect on January 1, 2026. They also issued the "Administrative Measures for the Advance Payment of Value - Added Tax" and the "Announcement on Matters Concerning the Deduction of Input Tax on Value - Added Tax", which also came into effect on January 1, 2026 [13] - Shanghai launched the work of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, with Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District as the first - batch pilot areas. The first - batch of housing to be purchased will focus on features such as suitable room types, reasonable layout, mature supporting facilities, and convenient transportation, aiming to accurately meet the "job - housing balance" needs of talents in various fields [14] - The second - hand housing market in many key cities recovered in January. In Beijing and Shanghai, 15,000 and 23,000 second - hand housing units were sold respectively, with year - on - year increases of over 20%. In Shenzhen, 5,000 units were sold, with a month - on - month increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The sales volume in Hangzhou also increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the market supply rhythm, the new housing market in key cities was relatively dull [14] - The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its estimate of the federal borrowing scale for this quarter. The main reason was the higher cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, which was partially offset by the expected lower net cash flow. The Treasury Department stated in a statement on Monday that it currently expects the net borrowing from January to March to be $574 billion, lower than the $578 billion estimated in November last year. This estimate assumes a cash balance of $85 billion at the end of March, consistent with previous quarters. For April to June, the U.S. Treasury Department expects to borrow $109 billion, aiming for a cash balance of $90 billion at the end of June [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 3, including contract information such as TL2603, TL2606, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Other Data: The report also mentions data on the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, the weighted interest rate change of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the interest rate swap fixing curve of Shibor3M and FR007, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [28][32][34]