原木期货日报-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday construction site stocking demand, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, leading to strong reluctance among traders to sell. The 03 contract's valuation is being repaired due to low inventory and expected reduced future shipments. However, with the approaching Spring Festival, spot market trading activity is expected to decline, and demand remains weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at current prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2603, LG2605, LG2607) increased, with LG2603 at 801.0, up 6.0 (0.75%) from the previous day; LG2605 at 802.0, up 6.0 (0.75%); LG2607 at 806.5, up 2.0 (0.25%). The主力合约基差 was - 51.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. Most spot prices of different types of logs at ports remained unchanged [2] - The latest round of FOB quotes showed that the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 3 to 113 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 125 euros per JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 4, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.934. The import theoretical cost was 771.23 yuan, up 19.89 (3%) from the previous day [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipping volume was 109.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 94.5 million cubic meters (- 46.32%) compared to November. The number of ships at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased from 55.0 to 29.0, a decrease of 26.0 (- 47.27%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 242 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7 million cubic meters (- 2.81%) compared to the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 177.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 11.7 million cubic meters (- 6.20%); in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 7.8 million cubic meters (23.63%) [2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume - As of January 30, 2026, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.01 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters (8%); in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.35 million cubic meters (- 18%) [3] Ship Arrival Forecast - From February 2 - 8, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 5, a decrease of 2 from the previous week (a 29% week - on - week decrease), and the total arrival volume was about 18.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.3 million cubic meters (a 15% week - on - week decrease) [3]