甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. With several companies planning to stop production and reduce output, it's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. Given that MTO profit caps the upper limit, unless other downstream products increase in price, it's currently appropriate to take a bearish view or sell call options [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with spot prices stable and the basis weak. Crude oil is also oscillating, leading to poor oil - and coal - based production profits. The upstream coal chemical industry and two major oil companies are destocking, while social inventory is increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance sheet for 05 PE shows significant pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has slightly declined. The upstream profit of oil - based production is stable, and downstream profits have improved. Supply has temporary maintenance plans, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for 05 and later shows a slightly large supply pressure [3]. - For PVC, the basis has increased, and this week's trading volume is average. The prices of ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based products are stable, and the profits of related raw materials are poor. The upstream is stable, and downstream demand is also stable. Total inventory is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the long - term, the PVC market outlook is poor [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the power coal futures price remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2305 to 2225, and the import profit and other indicators also changed. The daily change shows a 12 - point drop in the Jiangsu spot price and a 55 - point increase in the Hebei discounted price [2]. - Market Analysis: The Iran conflict affects the market. MTO resistance and production cuts by some companies limit the price movement. MTO profit restricts the upside, and a bearish view or selling call options are advisable [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 700 (except for February 3, data not provided), the North China LL price dropped from 6780 to 6680, and the import profit and other indicators changed. The daily change shows a 50 - point drop in the North China LL price [2]. - Market Analysis: The market oscillates, with a weak basis. Crude oil oscillation affects production profits. The upstream is destocking, while social inventory is increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance for 05 PE is under pressure [2]. PP - Price Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6370 to 6390, and other prices and indicators also changed. The daily change shows a 20 - point increase in the Shandong propylene price [3]. - Market Analysis: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has slightly declined. Upstream oil - based profit is stable, downstream profits have improved, and overall inventory is neutral with a slightly large supply pressure in the future [3]. PVC - Price Data: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2550, and other prices and indicators changed. The daily change shows a 30 - point increase in the calcium - carbide - based price in East China [4][5]. - Market Analysis: The basis has increased, trading volume is average, raw material profits are poor, upstream is stable, downstream demand is stable, total inventory is moderately high, and the long - term market outlook is poor [5].