大越期货天胶早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [6][11] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand shows mixed signals. The tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding, but automobile production and sales are falling [6][25][31] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area has rebounded The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume of natural rubber has rebounded [22] 3.2.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on February 3rd The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also part of the spot price information [10] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 15,900, and the basis is - 280, showing a bearish signal The basis weakened on February 3rd [6][37]