大越期货沪铜早报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; this is bullish [2]. - The spot price is 101,445, with a basis of -4,055, showing a discount to the futures; this is bearish [2]. - On February 3, copper inventories increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories increased by 7,067 tons to 233,004 tons compared to the previous week; this is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; this is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing; this is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are bullish due to supply - side disturbances and PMI decline; the basis is bearish; inventory is neutral; the盘面 is bullish; main positions are bullish; and there are geopolitical risks [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 factors: Global policy easing and mine - end tightness, including geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and the free port Indonesia mine's production reduction event [3][4]. - 利空 factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, as high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance situations from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].