大越期货尿素早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, and both agricultural reserve demand and trade demand are good. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. However, the domestic urea market is still in an oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (+0.9), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral. The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders being acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory being depleted. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking and improved orders. The bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With maintenance return, operating rate will rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and de - stocking is obvious. Order demand is good despite approaching Spring Festival. Agricultural reserve and trade demands are strong, and industrial demand (compound fertilizers and melamine) has increased. There is a large export price difference, but domestic market is oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), and fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: UR2605 contract basis is 0, premium - discount ratio is 0.0%, neutral [4]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (+0.9), bullish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract will fluctuate. Operating rate will continue to rise, downstream orders are acceptable, reserve demand has increased, and inventory is being depleted. UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1770 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1770 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2935 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 05 contract is 1770 (-17), the basis is 0 (+17), UR01 is 1730 (-24), UR05 is 1770 (-17), and UR09 is 1736 (-19) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 11181 (-75), UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 94.5 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 14.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]