焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-4）-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is slightly tightening as private mines are on holiday, while demand is weakening as coking plants' restocking nears completion and steel mills' profits are compressed. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term. The overall situation is neutral, with some factors being bullish and some bearish [2]. - For Coke: The supply of coke has increased as coking enterprises' profits have improved and production has risen. However, steel mills' demand is limited due to low profits. The coke market is in a "weak balance" state, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Supply is slightly tightening, demand is weakening, and market trading is sluggish. Coal mine quotes are mostly stable, with some downward adjustments [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1180, and the basis is 12.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Coking plants' restocking is almost over, demand is slowing down, and steel mills' procurement is limited. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamentals: Coking enterprises' production is stable, supply has increased, and they are actively shipping. Steel mills are controlling procurement, and inventory is still at a low level [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 1620, and the basis is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is decreasing [6]. - Expectation: The decline in coking coal prices weakens the support for coke. The market is in a "weak balance" state, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Price - Imported Coking Coal: The prices of different types of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some price increases [9]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: The prices of different grades of port metallurgical coke from different origins are presented, with no price changes [10]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mills' Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. 3.4 Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [44].