大越期货沥青期货早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample this week is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - The demand side shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - The basis on February 3, 2026, shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 59 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, refinery inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating, which is bullish [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - It is expected that refineries will reduce production in the near future, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is continuously decreasing; crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,276 - 3,342 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side situation: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - Demand - side situation: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes show different trends, but overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost - side situation: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Basis situation: On February 3, 2026, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 59 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory situation: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, refinery inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating, which is bullish [9]. - Disk situation: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - Main positions situation: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - Market expectation: It is expected that refineries will reduce production in the near future, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is continuously decreasing; crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,276 - 3,342 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Price and price difference trends: The report provides price and price difference data of multiple asphalt futures contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as price and price difference trends of asphalt and crude oil, such as the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the spread trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [16][23][26][29][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Price trends in different regions: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong, reflecting the price changes of asphalt in different regions [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which help to understand the profitability of asphalt production [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production volume of local refinery asphalt, operating rate, estimated maintenance loss volume, etc., which comprehensively reflect the supply - side situation of asphalt [45][48][51][57][60][63]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, refinery inventory, and refinery inventory inventory - to - sales ratio, which help to understand the inventory status of asphalt [66][70][74]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, which help to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [77][80]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions), which comprehensively reflect the demand - side situation of asphalt [83][86][89][93][98][101][104]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108].