大越期货豆粕早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information on industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): The price is expected to oscillate between 2710 and 2770. The US soybeans have rebounded from the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal has oscillated and declined. It is influenced by the US soybean trends, end - of - year demand, and news. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): The price is expected to oscillate between 4320 and 4420. The US soybeans have rebounded from the bottom, and the domestic soybeans have oscillated in a narrow range. Affected by spot prices, demand, and trade agreements, they will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Oscillates between 2710 - 2770, with a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, inventory decreased last week but is higher than last year, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main short - positions decreased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Soybeans: Oscillates between 4320 - 4420, with a neutral outlook. The basis is neutral, inventory decreased last week but is higher than last year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the main long - positions increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. The US market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for soybean meal in January is good, and it is expected to oscillate due to the influence of US soybeans and demand [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in January remained high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From January 26 to February 3, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3126 - 3171 yuan/ton, and the trading volume varied from 74.07 million tons to 0 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2430 - 2480 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0 tons [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary: From January 27 to February 3, the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices all showed certain fluctuations [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From January 23 to February 3, the number of soybean (bean - one) warehouse receipts decreased, the number of bean - two warehouse receipts decreased to 0, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 1000 on January 29 [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 - 2025, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: Provide the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Provide the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short - positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The main long - positions increased, and the funds flowed out [11]. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans was at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline [48]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [50]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the stocking demand had a good expectation [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and declined following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [54]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [56]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [58]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [60]. - The domestic pig - farming profit was slightly profitable [62].