碳酸锂期货早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,569 tons, a 2.91% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. The demand - side indicates that the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials had different changes. The overall situation is a tight supply - demand balance, with market sentiment fluctuating due to news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 141,040 - 154,360 [8][9][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,569 tons, a 2.91% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. In December 2025, the production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 23,989 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a 6.20% decrease [8][9]. - Demand - side: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 96,819 tons, a 0.24% increase from the previous week. The inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,691 tons, a 0.93% decrease from the previous week. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost - side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 143,941 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of 8,970 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 144,430 yuan/ton, a 1.34% decrease from the previous day, with a production profit of 3,530 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [11]. - Market Indicators: The main position is net long, changing from short to long, which is bullish. The basis on February 3rd shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 153,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 5,400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The overall inventory is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below the MA20, which is neutral [9][11]. - Likely Factors: The production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile are bullish factors. The continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline is a bearish factor. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [12][13][14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Ore Supply: The price of lithium ore, the production of lithium spodumene mines, the total production of domestic lithium mica, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the inventory of lithium ore of port traders all show different trends and changes over time [26]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) are presented, along with their respective trends and changes [33][36]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) are shown, as well as their trends and changes [43]. - Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost and profit of lithium hydroxide production, including different production methods and product types, are analyzed [49][52][55]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory by source, is presented [58]. - Demand - side: - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, are presented [60]. - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage: The inventory, winning bids, industry start - up rate, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries are shown [62]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [65][68]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, start - up rate, capacity, production, processing fee, and import and export volume of ternary materials are presented [72][74]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, start - up rate, production, and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium are shown [76][79]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles are presented [84][85][88].