工业硅期货早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8695 - 8935 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease. The demand side shows short - term reduction in silicon wafer production, with medium - term recovery expected. Battery cell production continues to decrease, and component production also continues to decrease. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak later. Cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48745 - 51255 [10]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main favorable factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production halt and reduction plans. The main unfavorable factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 333,000 tons. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons, with a production profit of 2,145 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,300 tons [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On February 3, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 385 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 554,000 tons, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 209,000 tons, a 1.92% decrease. The main port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.73% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% increase from the previous week. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in February is 45.31GW, a 1.34% decrease from the previous month. In January, the battery cell production was 41.44GW, an 11.37% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.17GW, a 2.80% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The scheduled production in February is 36.7GW, an 11.43% decrease. In January, the component production was 35.2GW, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production in February is 29.8GW, a 15.34% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 34.2GW, a 9.26% increase. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,100 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On February 3, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,500 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 333,000 tons, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon are presented, along with their changes and price differences. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.65% to 9,240 yuan/ton, and the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton [17]. - Information on various inventories, production, and prices of related products is also provided, such as the weekly social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 554,000 tons, and the weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% to 43,540 tons [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts and various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 01 contract price of polysilicon increased by 0.58% to 51,700 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece [19]. - Information on production, inventory, and export of polysilicon - related products is also provided, such as the weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9GW, and the component monthly production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2GW [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon are presented, including the SI main contract basis trend and the 421 - 553 price difference trend [21]. - Polysilicon Disk Price Trends: The disk price trends of polysilicon are presented, including the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis trends [24]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Information on industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume, is presented [27]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon are presented, including the weekly production of sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [32]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends: The cost trends of industrial silicon components are presented, including the main production area electricity price, main production area silica price, graphite electrode price, and partial reducing agent price [38]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Area Trends: The cost trends of industrial silicon in sample areas are presented, including the cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [40]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance [44][47]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Information on the price, production, import - export, and inventory of organic silicon is presented, including DMC price, production, capacity utilization, and downstream product prices [50]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Information on the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand of aluminum alloy is presented, including waste aluminum recycling, import - export, price, and production of aluminum alloy ingots [58]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Information on the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products (silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc.) is presented, including polysilicon cost, price, inventory, and the production and demand of downstream products [66].