菜粕早报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2280. Affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and Sino - Canadian trade relations, the short - term trend is weak, but the medium - term will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2280. The market is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. The short - term is affected by the improvement of Sino - Canadian trade relations and shows a weak trend, but the medium - term remains range - bound. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. The Sino - Canadian trade issue has reduced the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed, affecting domestic supply expectations. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved short - term Sino - Canadian trade relations, and the import of Canadian rapeseed by China is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports by China due to improved Sino - Canadian trade relations. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading data: From January 26 to February 3, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3126 - 3171 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.407 - 74.07 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2430 - 2480 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 0.5 million tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 741 yuan/ton to 676 yuan/ton [13]. - Price data: From January 27 to February 3, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2605 ranged from 2249 - 2325 yuan/ton, and the far - month contract 2609 ranged from 2287 - 2333 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2430 - 2480 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From January 26 to February 3, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet, from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio showed certain fluctuations. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet, from 2016 - 2025, the output, total supply, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also changed [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6 Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot was relatively strong, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level. Imported rapeseed will arrive at ports starting from February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [22][24][27]