日评-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]