广发期货日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The domestic market maintains high production, and inventory has slightly decreased. Traditional demand will seasonally weaken during the Spring Festival. The decline in the de - stocking rate of the 05 contract suppresses price rebound. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, although supply and demand are gradually improving, due to import pressure and high port inventory, its price may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Short - term oil prices are strong, so pure benzene may be boosted. - For styrene, although there are new export news and oil price support, its over - valuation and weak supply - demand expectations limit the rebound space [4]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply is shrinking, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is weakening due to the Spring Festival. Inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate again, but the rate is converging. Rubber prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and it is advisable to consider a light - position long - entry [5]. LPG No specific views on the future trend of LPG are provided in the report, only data on prices, inventories, and operating rates are presented [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins are driven by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, with prices being strong. The static fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand and inventory reduction. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance plans, while PE's standard - product pressure increases. The downstream operating rate is weakening [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a high inventory in factories and a good reduction in social inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to production line changes and glass operating conditions after the Spring Festival. - Glass has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to production line ignition, inventory changes, and macro - policies [10]. Crude Oil - International oil prices rose on Tuesday. Factors include the stabilization of the precious metal and non - ferrous metal markets, the intensification of the US - Iran situation, and the unexpected decline in API crude oil inventory. However, the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. Short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $63 - 70 per barrel [11]. Urea - Urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has increased. As the Spring Festival approaches, industrial demand decreases, and agricultural demand is selective. The market trading is inactive, and prices may further decline slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply and demand are unbalanced, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to adjust weakly, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. - PVC's supply is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and demand decreases due to the festival. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the first quarter, the supply - demand situation is weaker than expected, but there is support at low prices in the second quarter. - PTA: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. There is support at low prices in the second quarter. - Ethylene Glycol: It shows a pattern of weak near - term and strong long - term supply - demand. It will accumulate inventory in February, but the supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Supply increases and demand decreases in February, and the processing fee is under pressure [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2605 closed at 2247, down 0.22%; MA2609 closed at 2279, up 0.04%. The MA59 spread was - 32, down 23.08%. The port - inland spread decreased. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, port inventory increased by 1.00%, and social inventory increased by 0.05%. - Operating Rates: Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.19%, overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 14.26%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.35% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent crude oil rose 1.6%, WTI crude oil rose 1.7%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 8.8%. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: Styrene spot and futures prices rose. The EB - BZ spread increased. - Inventory: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed. - Operating Rates: Asian and domestic pure benzene operating rates increased, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased. - Fundamental Data: Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production increased in December, while China's decreased. Tire production and export increased. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory increased, and futures inventory in the warehouse decreased [5]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The main contract PG2603 rose 0.94%. The inter - contract spreads changed. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. - Inventory: Refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36%. - Operating Rates: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81% [6]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2605 closed at 6865, down 0.19%; PP2605 closed at 6730, up 0.24%. The L59 and PP59 spreads decreased. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%. - Operating Rates: PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.53% [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The main contract FG605 rose 1.52%. The spot price remained unchanged. The inventory decreased slightly. - Soda Ash: The main contract SA605 fell 0.17%. The spot price remained unchanged. The supply may decline in the short term, and the inventory in factories increased slightly [10]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent crude oil rose 1.55%, WTI crude oil rose 1.72%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices rose. The spreads between different contracts changed. - Refined Oil Cracking Spreads: The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed [11]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price fluctuated downwards, and the spot price was generally stable with minor changes. - Supply and Demand: The daily output increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market trading was inactive [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: The price of caustic soda decreased slightly, and the price of PVC increased slightly. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of caustic soda was high, and the demand was weak. The supply of PVC was expected to increase slightly, and the demand decreased due to the festival [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha increased. - PX - related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX price increased, and the spreads changed. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: MEG spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain changed [15].