永安期货集运早报-20260204

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 contract had a closing price of 1737.8, a 1.03% increase, a basis of 54.3, a trading volume of 612, an open interest of 1883, and an open interest change of -456 [2][32] - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1237.9, a 4.50% increase, a basis of 554.2, a trading volume of 29296, an open interest of 34229, and an open interest change of 423 [2][32] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1533.7, a 1.36% increase, a basis of 258.4, a trading volume of 3147, an open interest of 13458, and an open interest change of 860 [2][32] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 1597.9, a -0.62% decrease, a basis of 194.2, a trading volume of 353, an open interest of 1479, and an open interest change of 29 [2][32] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1128.6, a -0.12% decrease, a basis of 663.5, a trading volume of 1355, an open interest of 7677, and an open interest change of -207 [2][32] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 499.9 on the previous day, with a daily change of -35.5 and a weekly change of 9.9 [2][32] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -295.8 on the previous day, with a daily change of 32.7 and a weekly change of -31.6 [2][32] Group 3: Index Information - The current spot index (European line) was 1792.14 on February 2, 2026, with a -3.61% change from the previous period and a -4.86% change from the period before the previous one [2][32] - The SCFI (European line) was 1418 dollars/TEU on January 30, 2026, with an -11.10% change from the previous period and a -4.83% change from the period before the previous one [2][32] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Currently, geopolitical concerns are high. In the near - term, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points due to Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression. It is recommended to short the 04 contract cautiously, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. Future focus should be on PA alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3][33] - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the off - season and tax - refund negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they are expected to oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Cautious operation is recommended under geopolitical uncertainties [3][33] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking cabins for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the cargo - booking pressure has increased. Shipping companies need to book cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. MSK's cabin opening price for week 8 - 9 is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][34] Group 6: Related News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance's European line through the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, a structural change will be implemented for Maersk's ME11 service, transitioning it to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [5][35] - On February 4, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with US Middle East envoy Witkoff for over three hours to discuss the Iranian issue. Netanyahu stated that Iran is untrustworthy and cannot abide by any commitments, and the Palestinian National Authority will not participate in the governance of the Gaza Strip. Israel has "uncompromising requirements" for Hamas to disarm, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and the achievement of all war goals. Gaza's reconstruction can only start after these goals are fully achieved [5][35] - On February 3, US media reported that six Iranian gunboats approached the US - flagged oil tanker "Stenalmperative" in the Strait of Hormuz. The oil tanker accelerated and maintained its course under the escort of a US warship and is expected to arrive at Sitra Port in Bahrain on February 5. Iranian media reported that some ships were intercepted for entering Iranian territorial waters without permission [6][36]