瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output of restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production [2] - As the long holiday approaches, upstream factories continue the inventory - clearing/pre - selling strategy, and downstream enterprises make stable pre - holiday purchases. As a result, inland enterprise inventories continue to decline [2] - This week, methanol inventories at ports decreased. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 volume from mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to reduced unloading. The inventory at South China ports increased [2] - The short - term expected arrival volume of foreign vessels is likely to increase month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the提货 volume may decline, and port methanol inventories may accumulate. The extent of inventory accumulation depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume [2] - Last week, the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, the weekly average operating rate still declined. With the increase in the load of the Ningbo Fude MTO plant, the short - term operating rate of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly [2] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2279 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main methanol contract is 821,944 lots, an increase of 4,909 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 113,524 lots, an increase of 26,838 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,082, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 435 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main ports is 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price spread between China's main ports and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no month - on - month change [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 5.58 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, an increase of 2.14 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 8.05% [2] - As of February 4, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons [2] - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO plants of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continued to be shut down, and the Ningbo Fude plant restarted. After hedging, the weekly average operating rate still declined [2]