瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the pre - holiday market is large, which puts downward pressure on the spot price of live pigs. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is expected to gradually increase, providing some support for the price. The supply - demand game intensifies, and the market price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. On the futures market, the market sentiment is briefly boosted, and the live pig 2605 contract has a technical adjustment, closing up 0.95%. But the upside technical resistance is large, and the fundamental positives are limited, so the rebound space is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,735 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 145,975 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 53,734 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 647 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 547 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 50,321 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 551 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,300 yuan/ton, 12,100 yuan/ton, and 12,300 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 500 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton. The main live pig basis is 565 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 7130,000 heads. The national breeding sow inventory is 3,9610,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 290,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month is 0.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot price of corn is 2,371.37 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 yuan/ton. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 901.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.05. The monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 307,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,431 yuan/head, with no change. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is 124.13 yuan/head, with a week - on - week increase of 8.29 yuan/head. The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 25.1 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.25 yuan/head. The monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, with no change. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan/kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 4,8910,000 heads, with a month - on - month increase of 9340,000 heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel data shows that in January 2026, the comprehensive breeding sow inventory of key sample enterprises increased by 0.01% month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of large - scale farms increased by 0.02% month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farmers decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Due to the fewer slaughter days in February, large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter, and the slaughter enthusiasm of small and medium - sized farmers has increased. The breeding end is accelerating the slaughter rhythm before the festival, increasing the supply pressure [2].