铂钯金期货日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are 2000 US dollars per ounce and 1600 US dollars per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan per gram, and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 461.00 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 27.30 yuan. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands to 10387.00 hands, while the main contract positions of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 588.10 yuan per gram, with an increase of 21.29 yuan, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 417.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 16.51 yuan per gram, with a decrease, and the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 31.30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, with a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, with a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, with an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, with a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.37, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.92%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 1.66 to 18.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown. Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy. The US White House said that talks with Iran this week will proceed as planned. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The overseas precious metals market sentiment has warmed up, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's delay of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards are expected to increase the substitution demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The release time of the US ADP employment data on February 4th is to be determined, and the US January non - farm payrolls report will be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5th [2].